Engines of Affluence: Investing for the Apocalypse

Law And Order Criminal Intent Cast - Engines of Affluence: Investing for the Apocalypse

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Fans of Lord of the Rings may remember the monologue of Theoden of Rohan just before the battle for Helm's Deep, a battle the King believed he could not win. If today were the Day, and this were the Hour, then these might be the words of Theoden:

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Law And Order Criminal Intent Cast

The world is dying. You can feel it in the air. You can see it in the water. Some things that were, have passed into legend. Where is the horse and the rider? Where is the horn that was blowing? They have passed like rain on the mountain, like wind in the meadow. The days have gone down in the west, behind the hills, into shadow. How has it come to this?

It has come to this because the world needs an exit, and it doesn't have one.

It has come to this because evil men intended it.

It has come to this by intention and plan, and it has taken a hundred years to do it, which is just about right. (It should take a hundred years if the frontier ideas of history is correct. It took that long for the New World to have an impact on the old one, 1500-1600, about. The lag time should be the same for the extinction of Earth's last frontier to the loss of American uniqueness, 1900 - 2000, about.)

If, at this point, it is too late to save the world, then the examine to ask is, "How do I take advantage of the fall of Western Civilization?"

The Unifying Principle

More than six hundred years before the birth of Christ, Thales of Miletus lived the life of a philosopher and a man of collective importance on the western coast of modern-day Turkey, south of the legendary Troy. He left no written record, but only a reputation for wisdom. What makes him special is that he was the first in Western conception to recommend the idea of a single, Unifying Principle that explains the way things work.

Indeed, Thales seems to have had a gift for reducing the involved to the simple, as when he recommend inferring the height of the pyramids by measuring the shadows they cast at that time of day when the length a man's shadow is the same as his height.

There is mammoth power in a Unifying Principle, if one can be found. And it's not just the philosophical power of understanding, but the power of wealth and influence.

Thales employed his understanding of meteorology to predict the occurrence of a bountiful crop of olives in the arrival year. Knowing that this would place a strain on the existing provide of olive presses for making oil, he engaged every press he could find at a agreement price. When his improbable bumper crop materialized, the growers were forced to use the only presses ready at whatever price Thales chose to charge. The philosopher made a fortune.

Frontier Theory

Like predicting the weather, predicting time to come economic trends is a test of the ideas upon which the prediction is based. That is what gives frontier ideas utility beyond the scholastic rehearsal of understanding history.

Frontier ideas foresees that collective planners, religious leaders, government agencies and others who enounce to guide us, and have bombed out, will continue to fail, because they address symptoms rather than root causes, most of which have to do with enclosure -- the absence of frontiers. But that is a huge root cause. What, exactly, are you supposed to do about it?

Nothing, perhaps.

What remains is to shape out how to behalf from the fall.

Three Pillars of Success

The three pillars of success in this effort have classical roots. They are Authority, strangeness and Superstition. If they sound familiar, it may be because they are also the ingredients of fundamentalist religion.

Authority is the easy part: First money, then power. The key is to identify that the needs of enclosed populations are based on movement toward two-tier economic striation. Ultimately, there will be no middle class -- at least not on this planet -- just a small estimate of very rich people, among whom you hope to number, and the rest. Basically, you want to be a purveyor of energy, upscale products, or life-or-death services, but the image you want, insofar as you allow it to be seen at all, must be professionally altruistic. It is consistent with your objective to be an advisor to governments, but never hold collective office. To do so would make you familiar.

Be mysterious. Don't have a collective address. Don't have a collective phone number. whatever you do, don't give interviews. The calculate for this has to do with the zero-sumness of firm in an enclosed society. You will be taking from population less well off than yourself. You can count on being hated. When you need a collective face, use other people.

Promote superstition. Magic is a seductive lie, absorbing all sorts of useful delusions about one's situation. Best of all is the delusion of faith -- truth without proof -- because it means you never have to offer any of either.

Having read all that, you will realize that many details have been omitted, not the least of which is how you are supposed to live with yourself. Hey, that's not my problem. Thales of Miletus did have one great advantage over you. His world was not yet enclosed.

Engines of Affluence

Cultures grow or they die. Some population - too many - believe that they can prosper by seeking an balance with nature, free of any promulgation to pioneer, to colonize, to strengthen the human range. That is a false hope. The first law of frontier ideas is: Grow or die, and it applies to territory. Like the second law of thermodynamics, to which it is related, frontier theory's first law relies for proof on inductive mental supported by example. One form of proof is to make predictions based on the ideas to see if they work out.

Here we assume that human beings will not break out of their enclosed state any time soon. inevitable events could mitigate enclosure's effects, which is what makes prediction tricky. A good pandemic could provide temporary relief, as one did in 1350, when the Black Death wiped out a quarter of the population of Europe. War works, as long as you don't lose. We make the assumption that any epidemiological influences are slow-moving sufficient to allow economic factors to drive near-term events. We also assume that global war is universally understood to be unwinnable because of the arrival of nuclear weapons. As in past episodes of enclosure (in England of the 19th century, for example), we should look for concentration of wealth in the hands of a few with an with decrease in the standard of living of most people.

This article seeks to identify the types of businesses most likely to ensue in an enclosed environment, where there are no corporal frontiers. These will be the engines for concentrating wealth, engines of affluence.

With a integrate of exceptions, the improbable engines of affluence can be characterized as services. That is because the yield of goods for local consumption is a characteristic of a frontier economy. The test of whether manufactured goods are for local consumption is the question: can the majority of population who work in the premise afford them? If the respond is "no", the firm probably fits our definition of an engine of affluence.

Medicine is already an engine of affluence in the U.S., and it will come to be more so. Even in the event of complete socialization, curative institution should remain a regain route to wealth. Taking full advantage of the life-or-death nature of this firm for maximum behalf may want the practitioner to ignore some of medicine's ethical dimensions. However, protecting the wealthy and qualified against death and disease will remain, as always, highly profitable and relatively risk-free.

Not much needs to be said about the law. Lawyers can protect wealth only in societies that style themselves as democracies, and democracy is a frontier ideal.

Local electric power generation will come to be an engine of affluence. As the cost of supporting an electrical power infrastructure escalates beyond the ability of most population to pay, making power at home will come to be an issue for the wealthy. Solar power and wind power are current options. However, the hardware is conspicuous and vulnerable to storms and vandals. Further, there is no good way to store power generated when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining. Fuel cells and microturbines with multi-fuel ability appear to offer a good explication for regain power in the homes and businesses of the wealthy.

The design of high-end consumer products will come to be an engine of affluence. If you buy houses or cars or gasoline or tires or light bulbs or candy bars, or just about whatever else, you will encounter "value engineering", which is the art of discovering the value in a stock and getting rid of it. In an effort to keep prices within the reach of consumers, manufacturers already integrate parts, make them thinner "but just as strong", replace expensive materials with economy ones, sacrifice test time, eliminate some kinds of tests and lose components that only might conduce to safety. You could think of it as a inexpressive form of inflation. In order to regain a useful and safe product, consumers will have to move up the scale, and the economy products will drop out of sight as population make do without them or focus on maintenance instead of buying new. Ultimately, the only store for most new consumer products will be rich people, and only manufacturers positioned to take advantage of that will survive.

Maintenance will come to be an engine of affluence. Exterior the circles of the incredibly wealthy, the global standard of living will be a Third World standard. Today in Cairo, whatever who can fix an obsolete toilet without spare parts is in demand. Hire a small army of such resourceful technicians and you have an engine of affluence. Under our assumptions, frontier ideas predicts that this occasion will come to be more full, as population opt for repairs for as long as inherent before going without.

Security services will come to be engines of affluence. Body guards, guard dogs, concertina wire, alarms, weapons - those are the most inevitable elements of an emerging store for protective services for the very rich. Fear on the part of the affluent and envy on the part of the lower classes ensure good hunting for marketers of security services, which could contain training in the martial arts, wilderness survival, criminal investigation and accident driving skills.

High-speed communications will come to be an engine of affluence as firm travel becomes too expensive, unpleasant and risky to support. Increasingly, businesses that can devotee the skills to replacement information electronically (or optically), with a global reach, will be able to take their current travel expenses to the lowest line. Ceos may still get nearby in inexpressive jets. Luxury air travel may continue, but firm class, and with it all cheap air travel, will yield to telepresence, the illusion of being there.

Space tourism will come to be an engine of affluence. Its marketing will carry a subtle subtext for the rich, a way for the well-off to demonstrate their distinctiveness by doing something constructive, risky and admirable, a kind of noblesse oblige. And it will stand as a beacon of hope for those left behind, waiting for the gates of the high frontier to open wide.

Time frame? Less than twenty years.

These are not the only engines of affluence. unmistakably they are not the final destination of those with classic ambition. Why? Because after money comes power.

After Money

Knowledge, money, power... It's how a frontier works. Enclosure monopolizes and corrupts the cycle in a most undemocratic fashion, one which you may have come to know as "the way the world works".

W have already examined the relationship between knowledge and money. We shall now examine the proposition that money undefended is easy to take away.

It is extraordinary - some would say alarming - how meekly wealth without power falls prey to the politics of envy. During the new U.S. National elections, the political rhetoric portrayed persons in the top 1% of wage as selfish, privileged individuals unworthy of tax relief. In an upscale subdivision on eastern Long Island not long ago, new houses were set ablaze using birthday candles attached to plastic jugs filled with gasoline. The arsonists left a message spray-painted on an undamaged structure nearby: "Burn the rich".

The novels of Ayn Rand (including Anthem, The Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged) raised serious questions about the ability of the personel to survive the modern trend toward obedience and unity. She had unmistakably seen the effects of enclosure in Soviet Russia. To learn more about that, read We The Living, Rand's first novel, a work so depressing that it should be left on the shelf while there's snow on the ground. She tells her readers it is "as close to an autobiography as I will ever write".

As a practical matter, then, you'll need power, and you will need to get it before enclosure reduces to criminal behavior the few remnants of frontier values that still exist.

Fortunately, the final part of Ayn Rand's 1943 novel The Fountainhead serves as a useful guide for those wishing to design a set of skills suitable for the acquisition of power.

Ellsworth Monkton Toohey

Here are the rules, paraphrased by the author, as revealed by Ellsworth Monkton Toohey, a fictional newspaper editorialist in Rand's novel, and its chief villain:

Kill integrity. Advocate selflessness. You may be sure that mere mortals will fail in their attempts to achieve pure altruism. Use their guilt. Make them feel small. Cripple their spirit so they are unable to stand up straight, or stand for whatever at all.

Kill values. Set up standards of achievement open to everyone. Enshrine mediocrity.

Kill reverence. Turn joy at being in the nearnessy of the paramount into a sneer. Promote ridicule as an unlimited virtue. After all, when nothing is serious, whatever goes.

Kill happiness. Make the fulfillment of personal desires the ultimate evil. Unhappy population will come to you, their souls empty, yours to fill. Teach them sacrifice. Why? Because "the man who speaks to you of sacrifice speaks of slaves and masters, and intends to be the master."

Tame reason. It's the one weapon your victims will have against you, catching you in a contradiction. Tell them that calculate is not everything. There's instinct. There's intuition. There's faith.

And finally, there's this: "Everything that can't be ruled must go."

Surely the foregoing sounds familiar. Frightening, isn't it -- the lead others have on you? More frightening still is the Matthew Effect: "Unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath." It works relentlessly in enclosed societies.

Better get moving.

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